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While the equity markets, as measured by the S&P 500 index, was up in the third quarter, December was a disappointment from the gains seen in October and November. There’s no understating the volatility seen in the market this year. For context, Dow Jones Market Data indicates that the S&P saw more market moves of 2% (both up and down) in 2022 than in 2020. The 46 moves over the 2% threshold are approximately four times the 10-year average of 11.3.
Inflation is dropping, if slowly. Employment is lower, but strong, which is supportive of the economy, and GDP returned to positive. What’s causing the volatility? Many factors are in play, but arguably the largest is the Federal Reserve’s moves on interest rates, and the messaging from Chairman Powell and the Fed Governors.
Let’s get into the data:
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