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The market adage is “as January goes, so goes the year.” Is it true? According to an analysis by Fidelity, January returns are positive about 75% of the time the full year turns out positive.
The rally was certainly a relief after last year’s dismal performance, and while stocks and bonds are still positively correlated, the return to solid bond performance at least means the 60/40 has a chance of righting the ship.
But the data continues to be open to interpretation. Strong economic indicators like employment, a better-than-expected earnings season, and consumer spending don’t seem to match up to the very rapid change in GDP expectations.
Let’s get into the data:
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