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We’re on the home stretch of a year in which “unprecedented” doesn’t even begin to capture it. Nothing went according to plan, for anyone, from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the Fed’s domestic attempts to combat inflation. Along the way, we saw spiking gas prices, tanking equity and bond markets, a continued red-hot labor market, a head-scratcher of a mid-term election, and a broad and deep meltdown of crypto.
While stubborn resistance has succeeded beyond all hopes for the Ukrainians, intransigent inflation has resulted in a series of interest rate increases that we will only know the impact of sometime in 2023. Any one event had implications for everything else, and the intertwinement was perhaps exemplified by a year in which equities and bonds were largely locked in a Texas two-step.
The one thing we seem to be able to count on is increased volatility and uncertainty.
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